Shiites Blamed for Bombing of Other Shiites - Iran?

Reuters: U.S. blames Shi'ite group ... for bombing and killing of 63 Shiites

Sure, it's easy to see they're trying to stir up sectarian violence. But if your sect is that important, why not blow up some Sunnis instead of your own Shiites? 3 possibilities:

1. It was accident.
2. Religion isn't as important in Iraq as it's made out to be. Or maybe the situation has evolved to that state.
3. The special Shiite cell was from Iran and didn't care so much for Iraqi Shiites.

Option 3 seems the most likely, for several reasons. See: Europe announces new Iranian sanctions during Bush visit

France Pledges More Soldiers for Afghanistan; More Still Needed

More at the International Relations Blog

Reuters: Sarkozy pledges more troops for Afghanistan

Background
Afghanistan, “The Forgotten War”, has been in dire need of more, unhindered NATO troops. The remaining troops in Afghanistan from most European countries have been under strict restrictions from their government to prevent casualties. Unfortunately, this has hampered progress in Afghanistan. The U.S. has been calling for more, new troops for months.

In a speech to the British parliament, French president Nicolas Sarkozy pledged more French troops for the war, and called on Britain to send more as well.

Setting a precedent
Hopefully, these new troops will encourage other NATO countries, such as the U.K. and Germany to send more soldiers.

More troops are still needed
Other NATO allies, including Britain and Germany (mentioned above), Canada, Turkey and Spain still need to send more troops. A stable, safe Afghanistan will benefit all of them.

Will Russia Recognize the Georgia Breakaway Regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia? - NATO/U.S. Policy in Eastern Europe

Reuters: Russia MPs urge recognition of Georgia separatists

Background
Georgia, a former Soviet colony, has two de facto independent states within it: South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Neither region is recognized by any country internationally. Both regions have strong economic and political connections with Russia, and Russia has peacekeeping troops in both regions. In other words, Russia has a lot of leverage in these two areas.

Russian MPs voted unanimously yesterday to urge the Kremlin to recognize the two regions as independent if Georgia succeeds in its goal to join NATO. Russia has already decided to send more peacekeepers to both breakaway states.

Why is Russia being provocative?
There are four main reasons Russia flaunting its influence and being confrontational:
• Possible NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine
• Kosovar independence
• American approval of new shipments of arms to Kosovo
• The European missile shield

The first impetus for Russia’s actions is the same impetus for the measure passed by Russia’s parliament. The NATO head of state summit in Bucharest, Romania, is going to take place on April 2. There, several former Soviet states will apply for NATO membership. Three of them – Macedonia, Albania, and Croatia – will be ignored by Russia. Two of applications – Georgia and Ukraine’s – Russia seriously opposes. And on Wednesday, President Bush endorsed one of the country’s applications: Georgia’s.

The second force driving Russia to possibly recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia is Kosovar independence from Serbia and the international recognition that followed. Russia was one of a handful of countries that did not recognize the new Balkan country. Russia supported Serbia in its goal of holding onto Kosovo; they failed miserably. Russia was trying to assert itself in its former sphere of influence. Consequently, when it failed, the Kremlin looked very weak. Russia didn’t respond immediately, other than cutting off some energy from Eastern Europe. I warned at that time that we could expect Russia to either (a) cut off energy from Europe, (b) cause the U.S. problems at the United Nations Security Council or (b) recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It looks like options (a) and (c) could be realized.

Thirdly, President Bush yesterday announced the authorization of supplying Kosovo weapons. This was just another action that is brazenly against the Kremlin’s wishes.

Finally, the U.S. and Russia had conducted high level negotiations last week over the planned missile shield to be built by America in Poland and the Czech Republic, and, well, they were a total disappointment. There was nothing the Russian government was prepared to do to convince Washington to change their mind; there were no concessions Washington was willing to make to please Russia. The negotiations ended in a stalemate.

How Washington should proceed
There are two arguments that can be made here. One, that Georgia is a vital American and European ally and needs to be protected and included in NATO. Alternatively, one could argue, tensions with Russia are strained enough already and either concessions need to be made so Georgia can be included in NATO or Georgia shouldn’t be allowed to join NATO at all.

What would be best for humanity as a whole? The second option: Concessions from both sides. Russia agrees to tolerate Georgia’s NATO membership bid, and the United States consents to make compromises over the Europe missile shield program. Either the program would be given up completely or toned down.

Really, in this scenario, it would be the United States that wins. America and her interests are not protected nearly as much as one might believe because of the planned shield (although, it is important to note, Russia is not hampered in the slightest by this missile shield as well). Therefore, it is not vital for Washington to continue the shield. In return, Moscow would allow Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO.

In fact, it is unlikely the next president (of the United States) would continue the shield anyway. Meaning, America would lose next to nothing, keep Russia happy, and gain Georgia’s acceptance into NATO.

Russia to Cut Off Energy to Europe?

One possible Russian response to Kosovo independence that I completely left out of my analysis yesterday was the possibility that Russia could cut off energy to Europe. This strategy has been employed before and is shown to be effective.

Putin might decide against this response because of the possible repercussions.

Kosovo Independence: Russia-Serbia Relations and Russian Reaction

Kosovo declared independence from Serbia on Sunday, ending months of waiting. The U.S. and most other NATO nations already have or will to recognize the nation as a sovereign state. This has all been expected for months, but there are multiple variables that could change, all depending on the reaction of one country: Russia.

Background – Putin’s interest in the region
The Russian government has let the world know that it does not approve of an independent Kosovo. But why does Russia even have an interest in the region? To understand we need to travel back to rough times in Russia.

Vladimir Putin took over the Russian Federation just before the turn of the twentieth century, after the economically devastating rule of President Gorbachev. Russia was weak, and the citizens of Russia didn’t like it. They had been the strongest nation on Earth, in power with the United States, for 50 years. And they wanted that prestige and influence back. Russia was sliding down a nasty slope.

So along comes Putin. The former KGB agent is ‘elected’, and takes hold of the Russian Bear, stops it, and swings it around in the opposite direction. Well, that is what he would have you think. It will suffice to say that during Putin’s reign, life for the average Russian improved. With the improvement of the everyday Russian’s life, so came improvements for Russia’s power abroad. The country is once again strong, and still getting stronger.

The Russian bear has once again gained enormous influence over its satellites. It has gained much of this power by promising to protect its satellites and their interests better than the West can. This strategy has been the central doctrine of Moscow’s regional policy since Putin took power.

Along comes Serbia. Although never part of the U.S.S.R., Serbia, deep in Eastern Europe, has always fallen under Russian influence. Essentially, Russia wants Serbia to look to Russia for help rather than the West. This is why Russia has been against Kosovoan independence. If the Russians can successfully stop the West from allowing Kosovo to secede from Serbia, Russia looks stronger than the West.

In other words, Vladimir is proving himself (and Russia) to Serbia. But Russia is not only demonstrating its recently regained influence to Serbia; Putin has staked a great deal of his political reputation on stopping Kosovo from gaining independence. He is proving Russia’s power to the rest of the world.

Russia’s reaction
100 hours have passed since Kosovo declared independence from Serbia. So far, we have seen a limited reaction from Russia; nothing more than more diplomatic protests than usual. Russia doesn’t have a wide range of choices. Military action is an unlikely possibility because of geographic problems and for geopolitical reasons. A trade embargo would seem to be likely, but would be totally ineffective. Of course, Moscow could declare a trade embargo anyways, in a largely symbolic move. But other than that, Putin has three moves.

Two breakaway regions in Georgia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, could be recognized as independent or even absorbed by Russia. The two nation’s desire for independence has long been backed by Moscow, and Georgia has always been a thorn right on the border of Russia. Half of the country swallowed up by another would surely cause disruption. Russia would point to this action and say, hey, if you can change borders, so can you.

A second strategy might involve disrupting the West’s interests. In retaliation for the recognition of Kosovo, Russia could create problems at the United Nations Security Council. A potential target could be the third round of sanctions for Iran. This is the most likely Russian response.

This third approach is the most bizarre: do nothing. Putin has known the independence would come, and there’s not a lot he can do about it. If he were to stand back and watch the United States and the European Union control the situation, it would be very, very bad geopolitically for Moscow. They would look horrendously weak in front of the former Soviet Union, the West, and the rest of the world.

What should the U.S. do?
Now that Kosovo has been recognized, the United States no problems besides Russia. If Russia’s actions can be successfully contained, this whole Kosovo incident can be a good memory for everyone. Well, except for the Russians of course.

The United States has the most worry at the U.N.; that is where the most damage would be taken, and Russia’s most likely reaction. How can the U.S. prevent this damage from being taken? The Bush Administration will have to make concessions in other areas if they wish for the Iranian sanctions to pass.

A smarter strategy might have been adopted before Kosovo declared independence: pass sanctions before Kosovo declared independence.

It doesn’t matter now. It is time to look forward, and to develop a new strategy for dealing with the Russians in Eastern Europe.

Romano Who?

BBC: Italian PM Romano Prodi Resigns

It’s too bad that nobody cares.

Italy has lost all of its geopolitical influence to corruption and organized crime. It withdrew its soldiers from Afghanistan in 2006; it’s not involved in Iraq.

Kosovo Independence Worries E.U. Leaders and Sets European Precedent

Yesterday I wrote that “Kosovo declaring independence would be bad, because it would anger Russia, who the U.S. needs to help sanction Iran at the Security Council.”

One thing I didn’t mention at all throughout the article is another reason some are concerned about Kosovo declaring independence. Countries of the E.U. are worried that, should Kosovo break away, it will set a precedent for break away regions in their own countries. Specifically:
• Catalonia (Spain)
• Basque (Spain)
• Ossetia (Georgia)
• Abkhazia (Georgia)
• Nagorno-Karabakh (Azerbaijan)
• Transnistria (Moldova)

Not mentioned on this list, but making many more headlines than these regions, is Kurdistan. Though the countries which Kurdistan has ‘citizens’ in are not part of the European Union, the Kurds will be affected just as strongly by a declaration of independence.

Russian Manipulation in Kosovo and Iran

Kosovo partial official results confirm Thaci win

This is very interesting. Hashim Thaci, besides being the newly elected prime minister of Kosovo, is the president of the political party PDK, Democratic Party of Kosovo. But what is even more interesting is that he headed an ethnic-Albanian guerilla group, the Kosovo Liberation Army, which fought for independence from Yugoslavia and Serbia in 1990’s. In other words, he is very much an Albanian nationalist. Kosovo has said it will declare formal independence in December if a deal cannot be reached.

So Kosovo might gain independence. What’s the big deal? The region of Kosovo exists in Serbia, which Russia supports extensively. Russia is very much pro-Serbian, and has made its position very clear to both the E.U. and U.S. The U.S. Russia has given special attention to because the U.S. has a large amount of influence over Albanians.

Once again, so the Russians care. What’s the big deal? Well, it’s kind of a big deal that the Russians control a permanent veto-wielding seat on the U.N. Security Council.

The United States needs the United Nations, specifically the Security Council, to impose sanctions on Iran, so Iran can be isolated (once again, coming back to that in a couple of weeks). The sanctions will only be effective if the United States can prove international unity on the issue, which right now it has not, primarily because of Russia and China.

Let’s recap. Kosovo declaring independence would be bad, because it would anger Russia, who the U.S. needs to help sanction Iran at the Security Council.

Expect to see Russia flexing its muscles for two reasons in the coming days and weeks. One, to send a message Mr. Thaci and the rest of Kosovo. Two, to publicly remind the U.S. Kosovo declaring independence would not help the American cause at the U.N.

Want more on Russian influence? Check out last week's post Russian Chess

Russian Chess

IHT: The United States is prepared to offer concessions to Russia to soften its position on Iran and Kosovo

This is much bigger than most news organizations seem to realize. Russia has gotten exactly what it wants. Is this bad? Actually, it could lead to an end of the Iranian nuclear program.

What Russia wants
If one is to make any analysis, geopolitical or not, you have to look at what both sides want. In our case, the two sides are Russia and, of course, the U.S.

Russia is primarily looking to expand its sphere of influence back to the borders of the Soviet Union. The Russians realize they have a short window of opportunity to regain influence while the U.S. is bogged down in the Middle East.

But there are two serious roadblocks to expansion: the Conventional Armed Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE) and Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF).

The Russians want these treaties amended.

The only problem: this is not in America’s interest.

Consequently, Russia has had to use leverage to attempt to force America into signing amended treaties.

Russian leverage
Russia has used this leverage, essentially geopolitical blackmail, in two primary areas: Iran and Kosovo.

On Iran, it has blocked all but very weak sanctions at the U.N., supplied Iran with weapons and resources, and been a total irritation. As I plan to write about in more detail next week, the purpose of Iranian sanctions is to isolate Iran more than anything else. Therefore, with Russians blocking sanctions, Iran cannot be successfully isolated.

On Kosovo, Russia has appeared to even consider recognizing Kosovo. This has become more and more problematic and the deadline for a deal approaches (December).

And that brings us to today’s program.

So is Russia an ally?
Hell no. There’s still the INF treaty, which is Russia’s least favorite treaty. Moreover, there’s another treaty the Russians love, and would like to see extended.

But will Russia be more assisting in our efforts at the U.N.? Most likely.

Russia Must Extradite Litvinenkos Killer

If you noticed the pop-up asking you to subscribe, don’t worry loyal visitors! You won’t see it every time you visit.

Britain expels Russian diplomats in murder row

This is a necessary first step against Russia. The U.K. requested that Andrei Lugovoy be extradited to England for the murder of Alexander Litvinenko. Of course, Russia makes some ludicrous claim that “extradition is not allowed under the Russian constitution,” or something like that. As discussed previously, that is completely false. Extradition IS allowed under the Russian constitution. Extradition is not allowed, unless the person to be extradited has broken a law that is also law in Russia. Murder is illegal in Russia, in case you didn’t know.

More steps need to be taken against the Russian Federation until they realize they are breaking international law. Nothing will be accomplished at the U.N. because Russia is a veto-wielding member of the Security Council.

The West needs to put more pressure on Russia to extradite Lugovoy. Britain has the right idea, now we just need to continue.


Related articles:
•Extradition Is Allowed Under the Russian Constitution
•Cyber Attacks in Estonia Update
•No Missile Shield in Azerbaijan
•[POLL] Do You Support the Missile Shield in Europe?

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Tony Blair Becomes Mideast Quartet Envoy

Blair is Mideast envoy for 'quartet'

The whole Palestinian situation has been stuck in gridlock for decades. Could Blair only worsen the situation? Possibly. It's much more likely he will be able to help; his experience with North Ireland and the IRA will be essential.

Any thoughts?

Cyber Attacks in Estonia Update

This post may be completely useless, but maybe some readers will find it interesting.
In the previous post here at Thoughts on the World regarding the cyber attacks in Estonia it was mentioned that attacks had subsided. They started back up again, but they have stopped once again.

Courtesy NYT:

Cyber Attacks in Estonia

Originally posted at Political Grind.

From Wikinews (but written by worldthoughts-guess who that is):

Recent cyber attacks inn Estonia that have paralyzed the high tech country’s Web sites are a threat to national security, according to the country’s defense minister. This has concerned NATO, seeing that Estonia is a member state of the organization. The attacks have subsided this week.

The defence minister, Jaak Aaviksoo, also mentioned that Russia may have been behind the attacks[1]. Estonia recently removed Soviet-Era statue, which angered many Russians. Riots left 160 injured, and 1 dead.

Both NATO and the European Union views this as an attack on one of their member states. 300 Estonian IT specialist worked day and night to fix the problem [2].

The Estonian government plans to analyze server logs and data to find who orchestrated the attacks.

This is serious. This may be the first massive cyber attack by a government.

Who else would it be besides the Russians? Some 18 year old American bored in his basement? If it wasn’t the Russian government, the only other logical possibilities would be an angered Estonian (unlikely) or angered Russians not involved with the government (likely).

Russia is on the rise. As Putin prepares to step down, Russia will go through a mid life crisis. Cracks in the foundation of democracy are growing larger. Demonstrations by the Other Russia were cracked down on with nothing held back. The brutality was allowed to be captured by a Reuters team. This was deliberate “public relations” event. It was a warning to others.

How Will Sarkozy Affect the U.S.?

The Cafferty File, part of The Situation Room on CNN, poses a question every hour The Situation Room is on. This is today's 4:00 question, and Thoughts on the World's response.
------------------------------------------------------------
4 p.m.: How will France's election of a pro-American president affect U.S. relations with Europe?

Not much for George Bush. Sarkozy has not stated he is pro-Bush; he is pro-American. But the next president will have a much easier time dealing with the French and Iraq. Sarkozy has criticized the way the Iraq War has been handled, not by the U.S., but by France. He was not a supporter of the war, but has said the France shouldn’t let her ally down.

Sarkozy for French President

Thoughts on the World would like to endorse Nicolas Sarkozy to be the next president of France.


Let's start with a profile of both candidates. Ségolène Royal has a lower standing in poll ratings coming in to the election, but to many, she is the more charismatic of the two candidates. She was elected as the 6th sexiest woman by French FHM. She does have a stand on the issues, and policies she plans to enforce based on her stand. Violence on TV is her biggest pet peeve; she is a big supporter of family values. Her domestic plans are her strong point, while her views on foreign policy are lacking. She appears to have few opinions on foreign affairs, and does not wholly understand the topics she does have opinions on.

Royal's disappointing foreign policy opinions are what makes her not worthy of the presidency. For example, when she met with a Hezbollah politician, she had no problem when he compared the Palestinian territories to France under Nazi occupation. A few months later, she demonstrated her confusion of what's going on in the world; after the kidnapping of two French nationals by the Taliban, she called for sanctions to be placed on regimes like the Taliban. Apparently, she doesn't understand that the Taliban no longer rules Afghanistan. Someone who doesn't understand the basic facts of the War on Terrorism should not be president of a world power.

Nicolas Sarkozy is currently leading the polls, though many in the public are undecided. He has been criticized for his work as Interior Minister during the Paris suburb riots. During the riots, he pledged to clean up the rioting areas with a "Karcher." Karcher is brand pressure cleaning appliances. He also called rioters "thugs" and "riff-raff".

While Sarkozy's record at home may not be as clean Royal's, he has a better record with foreign policy. His opinions are also expressed more clearly. He would toughen Iranian sanctions and keep a friendly relationship with the U.S. (not necessarily Bush).


Neither of these candidates is perfect, but it's what we have to choose from. Both have some not so perfect grades on their report cards, but dealing with the choices given, Nicolas Sarkozy should be the next presidential candidate. His foreign policy understanding compared with Royal’s foreign policy misunderstanding makes Sarkozy the better candidate.

UPDATE: GDAEman pointed out this comparison ;-).A comparison can be made between Royal and George Bush. Both were inexperienced with foreign policy, and others were supposed to help them out (Cheney, Rumsfeld).

UPDATE II: Sarkozy elected French president

[POLL] Who Would You Vote For In The French Elections

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How Iran Violated The Geneva Convention

There is a post at Political Grind that deals with the recent Iran-British Sailor situation, and how Iran did not follow the rules set out by the Geneva Convention. It was written by none other than yours truly :)!

UK Has Trackers on its Boats

British troops 'confessed' to incursion, Iran says

This story just gets more and more preposterous.

If the boats were in Iranian waters, the U.K .would know. They have trackers on their ships, as does the U.S. But if the British don't come out with some evidence soon, they'll essentially be saying that Iran is correct.

The U.K. has to come out with some evidence supporting its claim. If it doesn't, Iran has to come out with some evidence besides "We tortured the troops until they confessed".