Rationality Wins in Israel

BBC: Livni claims victory in Israeli vote

This is great. Livni, by far, seems like the smartest, most rational of the candidates presented to Kadima voters. However, the fight is not yet over: early parliamentary elections could mean far right leader Benjamin Netanyahu could take power. This would be disastrous. Netanyahu has a record of being a hardliner not willing to make compromises.

I'll try to elaborate more tomorrow.

Prisoner Swap with Hezbollah, Truce in Gaza - Rumblings in the Middle East

CNN: Israeli Cabinet to consider swap with Hezbollah
BBC: Rockets ‘violated Gaza ceasefire’
Reuters: More indirect Israel, Syria talks in July

Background
Israel has been negotiating on two and a half fronts recently. The first front is in the Palestinian territories, but specifically with Hamas in Gaza. The second and a half negotiations were with Hezbollah/Lebanon along with Syria.

Negotiations with Hamas have been ongoing since the 2006 abduction of Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit and after the 2007 coup in which Hamas ousted its rival Fatah and took over the Gaza Strip. The eventual result was a ceasefire for Gaza which began Thursday. No one expected the truce to last long, however. That assertion was only confirmed today when Islamic Jihad militants launched rockets into southern Israel in retaliation for an Israeli air strike in the West Bank, which, if you don’t remember, is not part of the truce.

The second front has been much more interesting, not to mention more peaceful (albeit just for now, but we’ll get into that later). Israel and Syria have finally gotten around to having negotiations over the disputed Golan Heights that Israel captured in the 6 Day War. The talks, which are being mediated by the Turks, have not been completely endorsed by the U.S., which has complicated things, and even led one Israeli general to declare that there will be no deal with Syria until George Bush is out of office.

On the other half of that negotiating front is Lebanon and Hezbollah – Israel has opened up negotiations with both. Why include Lebanon/Hezbollah and Syria together? There can be no peace between Israel and Syria without involving Lebanon and Hezbollah, and there can be no peace between Israel and Hezbollah without involving Syria. Besides, Syria still has de facto control over many parts of the country. This is for many political, religious, and economic reasons, but it is also because Syria has a big hand in the actions of Hezbollah. Well, it appears Syria has given the go ahead for some peace between Israel and Hezbollah: a prisoner swap. Two soldiers captured in 2006 by Hezbollah would be traded for a rumored five Hezbollah guerrillas.

So, to sum up an unnecessarily long background:
- Israel is negotiating with Hamas for peace in Gaza and the return of a captured soldier
- Israel is negotiating with Syria over a peace agreement on the Golan Heights
- Israel is negotiating with Hezbollah, which is supported by Syria, for the return of two captured Israeli soldiers

Peace in Gaza
One thing not mentioned above was the almost imminent incursion that would have surely taken place if it hadn’t been for the ceasefire. Rocket fire had gone on for far too long without the Israeli government truly responding for most Israelis tastes. Therefore, Israel should take this truce as an opportunity to do three things: (a) prepare its military, if necessary, for an incursion; (b) bolster Fatah in the West Bank; (c) open up final peace negotiations with Hamas. If those negotiations failed, and rocket attacks resumed, options a and b would be ready for retaliation against Hamas

Peace in Lebanon
The prisoner swap should go through, and the United States needs to endorse a peace deal between Syria and Israel. Peace is in the interests of all the above countries – Israel would like peace and its ruling politicians any victories; a deal on the Golan Heights has been said to be the ‘number one foreign policy issue’ for Syria; and a peace deal between Israel and Syria would undermine American archenemy Iran.

Political turmoil in Israel
The ruling coalition in Israel has been hit by a number of corruption scandals. Early elections seem likely. However, early elections could put more extreme parties, including the Likud party of right wing hardliner Benjamin Netanyahu. Any successes in Lebanon, Syria, or the Palestinian territories would greatly bolster the current, moderate administration. That would be in our best interests.

Retaliation for Imad Mughniyah Assassination Soon?

Reuters: Hezbollah commander hailed as a martyr

Background
Imad Mughniyah was Hezbollah’s military commander that was the mastermind of several of Hezbollah’s most successful operations starting in the 1980s. He was on the most wanted list in both the U.S. and Israel. February 12 he was assassinated via car bomb. No one has claimed responsibility, though Hezbollah blames Israel’s Mossad, the equivalent of the Israeli CIA. A 40 day mourning period then began, and is set to end tomorrow, when Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is expected to address thousands of followers at the event in Beirut's southern suburbs.

Will Hezbollah retaliate for the killing?
It is quite possible Hezbollah will retaliate. In 1992, after the Israeli assassination of Hezbollah leader Sayed Abbas al-Musawi, Hezbollah attacked the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Now that the 40 day mourning period is over, and Hezbollah cells have had time to collect information and to prepare for an attack, an incident is very likely.

Another all out Lebanon war?
Unlikely. The war conducted in the summer of 2006 was a huge failure for Israel. They are not likely to make the same mistake twice. Consider, as well, that they are bogged down fighting Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Anything the U.S. or Israel can do?
Stay alert, number one. Number two, don’t overreact. We don’t need another war in Lebanon.

Hoping That Arab Governments Are Blamed

On Wednesday I wrote “Hoping Hamas is Blamed.” It’s pretty obvious now, just as it was then, that Hamas isn’t going to be blamed and Israel’s plan will not succeed. Luckily, a new possible scapegoat has joined the herd – other Arab governments.

The predicament
Egypt’s been left with quite a problem; Hamas will not allow the Egyptian government to shutdown the border peacefully. That leaves them with essentially two options.

Option number one of the Egyptians is to shut their border with Gaza down by force. The problem with this, in their view, is that it (a) possibly destabilizes the region (b) infuriates relatives of Palestinians in Egypt.

Option number two is allowing continued free passage between the Gaza Strip and Egypt. This would upset Israel and the U.S. As well, it could draw the ire of many Egyptians if Gazans become perceived as unwelcome guests.

A new scapegoat
Unless Gazans point their fingers at Hamas in retaliation for their poor situation, there is another group they blame: the Arab League.

The Arab League held an emergency meeting yesterday to try to solve the current crisis. If the group of states publicly pushes for a closing, there is a chance (albeit a small one) that the League will be blamed.

It’s unlikely
Don’t get your hopes up. Going on current sentiment towards the West in the region, and looking at past experiences, it is almost certain Israel and the U.S. will take most of the Gazans anger.

Moving forward
And more anger is not what we need. Anger will only sponsor more terror, not help fight it. We need to come up with a plan that will get the support of the Palestinian people. Only then will Hamas lose popular mandate, and will a solution be found.

Hoping That Hamas Is Blamed

Reuters: Palestinians blow up border wall, flood into Egypt

Well, it had to happen sometimes. And its too late to change course.

Israel’s strategy
Israel has been attempting to isolate Hamas and make their government in Gaza look like a failure. Israel, the U.S., and other western powers have been bolstering Mahmoud Abbas’s (semi-)democratic government in the West Bank to solidify this image.

The mistake of the strategy – or not?
Israel has been making life in Gaza miserable for Gazans, and life will only become exponentially worse in the following weeks and months.

By increasing poverty, unemployment, and general dissatisfaction in Gaza, the West is creating the perfect situation for terrorism to grow. Terrorism is like a disease: it grows on dissatisfaction. Israel and the United States will be blamed for the bad conditions.

Unless, of course Israel and the West aren’t blamed, and instead, the Hamas government is. That is the Ehud Olmert’s hope, at least.

It’s too late now
This blockade and isolation has been going on for months, and it is too late for a quick reversal. The only thing we can hope is that Prime Minister Olmert is right, and the Hamas government is blamed instead of the West, because truly, in reality, it is Hamas’s fault.

The Annapolis Conference: More Hurtful Than Helpful?

Yes, then Israelis and Palestiians appear to be finally making some progress. But it is hard to be optimistic. Beyond the Cusp (a fantastic blog/blogger) takes a cold, hard look at reality. What happens if Annapolis does succeed? He goes on to make 3 main points:

1. Implementation of the agreement would be extremely difficult
2. Once Israel withdraws from the Palestinian territories (which will be certainly part of the agreement), Hamas will take power from Fatah and declare any agreement invalid.
3. If the agreement appears unsuccessful, Iran and/or Syria could take advantage of the situation and could possibly invade Israel, leading to a regional war.

Hits the nail on the head.

Israel's Mistaken Gaza Approach

Israel is considering a power cut in Gaza in retaliation for a rocket attack that almost hit a kindergarten in a town called Sderot. This may not be the best option, but considering Israel’s current strategy, it could be the best option.

Israel’s current strategy

Israel has been attempting to isolate Hamas and make their government in Gaza look like a failure. Israel, the U.S., and other western powers have been bolstering Mahmoud Abbas’s (semi-)democratic government in the West Bank to solidify this image.

It hasn’t been going so well. Gaza hasn’t been a failure, but it hasn’t been a success either. But because of an international boycott of trade with Gaza, it will be a failure soon. Gaza isn’t getting basic supplies, and Gaza is being torn apart by it.

A power cut would hasten Gaza’s downfall, but it would help to continue to alienate the one group of Palestinians that support’s Israel: the merchants. More on this later.

But if Israel is to continue its current policy, cutting power would be the best choice.
The mistake of the strategy

Israel has been making life in Gaza miserable for Gazans, and life will only become exponentially worse in the following weeks and months.

Basic aid and food is making it into the Palestinian territory, but that’s just about it. Not a lot’s getting in, and less is getting out. An international boycott is preventing trade with Gaza.

By increasing poverty, unemployment, and general dissatisfaction in Gaza, the West is creating the perfect situation for terrorism to grow. Terrorism is like a disease: it grows on dissatisfaction.

The international boycott is hitting Gazan merchants the hardest. They were content (or more content than the majority of Palestinians) selling their goods in Israel. Now, they can’t sell their goods in Israel, or anywhere at all. The one group that once stood by Israel is now receiving the brunt of Israel’s approach. Does that sound smart?

Tony Blair Becomes Mideast Quartet Envoy

Blair is Mideast envoy for 'quartet'

The whole Palestinian situation has been stuck in gridlock for decades. Could Blair only worsen the situation? Possibly. It's much more likely he will be able to help; his experience with North Ireland and the IRA will be essential.

Any thoughts?

Don't Touch Those Sanctions!

Israel: Shun new Palestinian government

A unity government formed between rival Palestinian factions was welcomed by Norway and the European Union, but Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert told his Cabinet on Sunday that he would not work with the new coalition. Israel called for international opposition after a Hamas leader said the group retained the
right of "resistance."

If you had a neighboring country run by terrorists, would you be willing to go along with their every whim? Norway has dropped its sanctions against this elected government controlled by terrorists. Sanctions should remain. The almost (if not) civil war in the West Bank is making life horrible for Palestinians. A new government should be elected, and until then, sanctions should remain.

Ceasefire

Hamas, Fatah agree ceasefire: minister

GAZA (Reuters) - Rival Palestinian factions agreed a ceasefire in Gaza effective from 3 a.m. (0100 GMT) on Tuesday, Palestinian Foreign Minister Mahmoud al-Zahar said. Zahar, speaking after talks between Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh of
Hamas and a senior aide to President Mahmoud Abbas, of Fatah, said the two sides
had agreed to take all gunmen off the streets of Gaza and remove checkpoints.

Peace at last. Peace is the only way forward. Fighting will get everyone nowhere.