Earthquake in China Has Stoked Nationalism and Freed the Olympics from Criticism

I asked a couple of weeks ago what the effect of the Sichuan earthquake would be. The main focus of the article was a possible rise in nationalism. As TIME Magazine points out in an article linked below, that forecast definitely was realized. But there was another geopolitical consequence: sympathy for China from the rest of the world after weeks of China-bashing. The earthquake, in the long run, probably came at the best of times for the government in Beijing.

Time: China: Roused by Disaster

"We Chinese people are growing closer and closer together," says Wu Xiangping, 28, who took a leave from his job at a Beijing advertising firm to join the relief effort. "And because of that, the country's morality is rising too.

[...]

But from a monstrous humanitarian crisis has come a new self-awareness, a recognition of the Chinese people's sympathy and generosity of spirit.

[...]

In turn, some of China's most xenophobic bloggers have expressed astonishment at the sympathy shown for China by the rest of the world, the donations of cash and goods and the dispatch of foreign search-and-rescue teams, doctors and other personnel. The outpouring of international goodwill "has changed everything," says a senior Western diplomat based in Beijing. "Now many people will be cheering for the Chinese and hoping they pull off a good show at the Olympics. That will be pivotal for China's self-confidence and its perception of its place in the world."

U.S, Iran, Neighbors Meet Over Iraq

Reuters: U.S., Iran and Arab neighbors to meet on Iraq

This will be the first time Iranian and American negotiators will (publicly) be in the same room since talks over Iraqi security have been suspended. The U.S. should take this chance to publicly say:
1. That a peaceful Iraq will not be possible without Iran
2. Iran should stop arming Shiite militias
3. A stable Iraq is in the interests of Iran and the Sunni countries of the region

Stupid Ass Comment of the Day Award

McCain: U.S. can win Iraq war by 2013

Mhmmm... Mhmmm... Mhmmm... No.

Will the Earthquake in China Stoke Nationalism? How can the West use it?

CNN: Quake kills thousands, traps hundreds

Background
This year’s Beijing Olympics, as any good wonks knows, was supposed to be a coming out party for the new China. To say it isn’t going well is an understatement. First came the Darfur activists. Darfur activists, in particular Amnesty International, had been preparing massive protests and boycotts for the 2008 Olympics because of China’s support for the government of Sudan. That was before protests in Tibet. Protests in Lhasa and the harsh crackdown that followed inspired a new group of protesters that wanted greater autonomy and freedom, if not independence, for Tibet. Even more recently, there have been calls for China to disassociate itself from the government in Myanmar after the disastrous cyclone there.

Analysis
These protests have created a backlash in China and around the world. Chinese nationalism has been stoked. But as The Economist warns in the previously linked article, new nationalism is also a danger to the current Chinese regime. “Popular anger, once roused, can easily switch targets,” the magazine editors write. “[P]rotests at perceived slights against China's dignity could turn against a government accused of not doing enough to safeguard it.”

In the same way 9/11 increased patriotism in America, so will these quakes in China. That much is certain. What is questionable is which route this patriotism will take: will it be let out on the Communist government, or on foreign countries?

It depends on how the governments of the world respond. Will Hu Jintao’s administration fail miserably at natural disaster response, or will it shine? Will they cover up the extent of the disaster? How will Western media portray the disaster? Will Western governments send disaster relief? How much? These questions will only be answered by time.

How we can respond
Of course, instability in the world’s largest production factory is not what any Western politician wants right now. Therefore, suggesting backing for Chinese dissidents (for example) may not be politically feasible.

We’ve also got to keep in mind: this is a humanitarian catastrophe, not just an event to be used politically. We definitely can and should send aid.

However, that does not mean we can’t leverage the Chinese government for whatever we can get.

Will Israel Trade the Golan Heights for Peace with Syria?

BBC: Israel ready to return Golan Heights to Syria

Background
The Golan Heights is an a mountainous region in north east Israel that the Jewish state captured in the 1967 Six Day War from Syria and successfully defended in the 1973 Yom Kippur war. A portion of the land was returned to Syria in later years.

There has long been talk of eventual Israeli return of the land to Syrian control in exchange for peace. Indirect talks mediated by Turkey have picked up pace recently.

Recent events
There have been several recent events that are very interesting.
1. The bombing of Syria’s supposed nuclear reactor
2. North Korean nuclear progress
3. Congressional briefing on possible Syrian-North Korean nuclear ties
4. Syrian military on alert
5. Israeli military on alert
6. The assassination of Imad Mughniyeh

Last September, Israeli jets bombed a building in Syria. The event was completely surrounded in mystery, with many leaks and sources pointing to the conclusion that the building was a nuclear facility. Other facts indicated Syria got this technology from North Korea. A select group of Congressional officials is being briefed on that possibility today, with all leaks saying the answer was yes.

Months later, Imad Mughniyeh, a top ranking Hezbollah official, was assassinated. The likely culprit: Israel. Then, even more recently, both the Israeli and Syrian militaries were put on alert. Some analysts believed Israel was watching for a Hezbollah assassination, and Syria was just being careful. More interestingly, rumors swirled about another Israel-Syria war.

Was this Israel’s attempt at preventing a conflict? Prime Minister Olmert already suffered through one unpopular war in Lebanon in 2006; it’s unlikely he’d survive another war.

Anyway, where does Syria’s nuclear reactor fit in? Well, the timing of the briefing and of Israel’s extension of the olive branch cannot be any coincidence. Syria could be forgiven for its nuclear crime as part of the deal.

What should we do now?
Israeli return of the Golan Heights for peace does not sound like a bad idea for either side. If Israel can juice the thing for everything its worth, I’m sure we could convince Syria to disassociate itself with Iran, or to some degree.

Bush Climate Plan Too Little Too Late, No Specifics

Background
President Bush, several months after the Bali climate conference, has announced the United States of America’s new climate policy: he wants our emissions to stop growing by the year 2025. That’s right, he wants them to stop growing. Not to go down, but to stop growing. Make sure you understand that part.

Also note, the president announced little (if any) plans that would actually stop emissions from growing.

Analysis
Now, there are principally three reasons for this:
1. To pressure China, India and other developing countries to start thinking about climate change
2. To speed up talks on a new international emissions treaty

Also, the initiative builds on the Administration’s new willingness to take a chance with an international treaty.

More needs to be done
This proposal obviously lacks any substance. First of all, only stopping emissions from growing by 2025 is too little, too late. The other problem, of course, is that Bush didn’t actually give any ideas on how to actually reduce emissions.

Bad News for Obama Supporters: Polls and Don't Ask, Don't Tell

Fox: Obama won’t demand Joint Chiefs reject ‘Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell’
CNN: Poll: McCain even with Obama, Clinton

Bad news for Obama supporters. The poll I personally find particularly ominous. The Democratic nomination must end soon: superdelegates must endorse by June 4.

Obama’s new “Don’t ask, don’t tell” policy also disgusts me. Homophobia is modern day racism, sexism and anti-Semitism. And also, in an exclusive email conversation with the Obama campaign 9 months ago, I thought he made it pretty clear he would end the practice:

“Senator Obama supports economic, social, and legal rights for gays and lesbians. He supports full civil unions, expanding hate crimes statutes, fighting discrimination at work and in housing and other places of public accommodation, and wants to increase adoption rights. He opposes any Constitutional ban on gay marriage, opposes the Defense of Marriage Act, and opposes the current “Don’t ask, don’t tell” policy on gays in the military, which weakens us in a time of global challenges.”

Putin Has Only Isolated Russia Further

Eftychis has an interesting post over at New School Politics on Putin's inability to alter the international system. He has many great points, but there's one in particular I thought was very interesting:

Russia under Putin has in fact moved backwards from the proactive involvement of Yeltsin in the 1990’s. Yeltsin gained Russia G8 membership and even tried to move it closer to NATO, whereas Putin has attempted to juxtapose Russia as a competitor to NATO. Putin’s practices have only increased the isolation of Russia, had he not embarked in seven years of extreme nationalistic policies, it is likely that rising oil prices and globalization would have carried Russia much further than where it is today.

The Four Options for the Democratic Nomination and the Best Plan Going Forward

There are essentially four options left for the Democratic nomination. They depend upon three factors: who wins Pennsylvania, who wins Indiana, and whether Florida or Michigan get revotes.

The possibilities

1.Clinton wins Pennsylvania, Indiana and Florida and Michigan get revotes.
Outcome: Clinton wins
2. Clinton wins Pennsylvania, Indiana and Florida and Michigan do NOT get revotes.
Outcome: Clinton will win after a fight
3. Clinton wins Pennsylvania, Obama wins Indiana.
Outcome: Obama will win after a fight
4. Obama wins Pennsylvania, Indiana.
Outcome: The race is over. Obama wins nomination

The best plan moving forward
There is one plan, which DNC chairman Dean has already proposed, which makes perfect sense no matter which way any vote goes: superdelegates must endorse by June 4. This will save time, money, and energy, and could save Democrats the election. The one thing I would add is this: new elections in Florida and Michigan are not necessary. They understood the rules when they voted to move their primaries forward. A revote there would only be costly and would hurt the party.

North Korea Tests Short Range Missiles; North Korean Negotiating Strategy

ABC News: North Korea Tests Short Range Missiles

Summary and analysis
North Korea test launched several short range missiles yesterday, in a not-so-veiled response to South Korean Unification Minister Kim Ha-joong’s comments. The North Koreans also kicked out South Korean diplomats. The South Korean government downplayed the missile launch, in their own not-so-veiled attempt at not provoking the North Koreans any further.

North Korea’s attempt at attention
Kim Jong-Il controls NK almost like a child would. Ever since the Soviet Union fell, he has resorted to provoking the U.S., South Korea, Japan, and China, in order to create divisions among the four so it can achieve its primary goal: regime survival. The promising nuclear deal appeared last year to signal the end to one of Kim’s regime’s strongest cards: the nuclear one. Now, it seems not so much (for several reasons; one of which is the fact that some in Washington believe North Korea sent nuclear technology to Syria).

South Korea and the U.S. must proceed carefully
South Korea and the U.S. must proceed carefully in order not to provoke North Korea. Seoul and Washington cannot afford to miss the chance of Kim giving up his nuclear program.

France Pledges More Soldiers for Afghanistan; More Still Needed

More at the International Relations Blog

Reuters: Sarkozy pledges more troops for Afghanistan

Background
Afghanistan, “The Forgotten War”, has been in dire need of more, unhindered NATO troops. The remaining troops in Afghanistan from most European countries have been under strict restrictions from their government to prevent casualties. Unfortunately, this has hampered progress in Afghanistan. The U.S. has been calling for more, new troops for months.

In a speech to the British parliament, French president Nicolas Sarkozy pledged more French troops for the war, and called on Britain to send more as well.

Setting a precedent
Hopefully, these new troops will encourage other NATO countries, such as the U.K. and Germany to send more soldiers.

More troops are still needed
Other NATO allies, including Britain and Germany (mentioned above), Canada, Turkey and Spain still need to send more troops. A stable, safe Afghanistan will benefit all of them.

Retaliation for Imad Mughniyah Assassination Soon?

Reuters: Hezbollah commander hailed as a martyr

Background
Imad Mughniyah was Hezbollah’s military commander that was the mastermind of several of Hezbollah’s most successful operations starting in the 1980s. He was on the most wanted list in both the U.S. and Israel. February 12 he was assassinated via car bomb. No one has claimed responsibility, though Hezbollah blames Israel’s Mossad, the equivalent of the Israeli CIA. A 40 day mourning period then began, and is set to end tomorrow, when Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah is expected to address thousands of followers at the event in Beirut's southern suburbs.

Will Hezbollah retaliate for the killing?
It is quite possible Hezbollah will retaliate. In 1992, after the Israeli assassination of Hezbollah leader Sayed Abbas al-Musawi, Hezbollah attacked the Israeli embassy in Buenos Aires, Argentina. Now that the 40 day mourning period is over, and Hezbollah cells have had time to collect information and to prepare for an attack, an incident is very likely.

Another all out Lebanon war?
Unlikely. The war conducted in the summer of 2006 was a huge failure for Israel. They are not likely to make the same mistake twice. Consider, as well, that they are bogged down fighting Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

Anything the U.S. or Israel can do?
Stay alert, number one. Number two, don’t overreact. We don’t need another war in Lebanon.

Taiwan Pro-Independence Party Loses Election, Referendum

BBC: Opposition’s Ma wins Taiwan poll

Background
Ma Ying-jeou of the Kuomintag party won Taiwan presidential elections, 16% higher than his nearest rival, Frank Hsieh of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party. A referendum on whether Taiwan, officially the Republic of China, should join the United Nations under the name of Taiwan was conducted along with the presidential vote. The referendum failed because enough voters did participate, although a clear majority of those who voted were in favor. The opposition boycotted the referendum, and the United States did not support the referendum.

The Kuomintag party (KMT, translated as Chinese Nationalist Party), is part of the Pan-Blue coalition of Taiwanese political parties that supports eventual reunification with the People’s Republic of China (PRC). KMT has been forced to tone down their rhetoric, and has been advocating the status quo: the People’s Republic of China being the official internationally recognized China, while Taiwan still maintains de facto relations.

What will China-Taiwan-U.S. relations be like?
The KMT and Ma have called for closer political and economic relations with the PRC, hoping to take advantage of China’s economic (super)boom. It is unlikely, however, the two nations will unify or Taiwan will declare independence.

The failure of the referendum and the KMT’s election will provide a much needed respite for the U.S. If the referendum had passed, and Taiwan had attempted entered the United Nations under the name Taiwan, there would be serious China-U.S. relations repercussions. Namely, Washington has promised to protect Taiwan from any Chinese military actions.

How the U.S. should proceed
The United States needs to proceed with caution and cannot afford to provoke either country. Washington should not advocate neither the reunification nor official separation. Any sudden move could upset the whole region. The economy is in a bad enough shape already, and an upset China could prove to devastate us only more. The status quo is fine.

Will Russia Recognize the Georgia Breakaway Regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia? - NATO/U.S. Policy in Eastern Europe

Reuters: Russia MPs urge recognition of Georgia separatists

Background
Georgia, a former Soviet colony, has two de facto independent states within it: South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Neither region is recognized by any country internationally. Both regions have strong economic and political connections with Russia, and Russia has peacekeeping troops in both regions. In other words, Russia has a lot of leverage in these two areas.

Russian MPs voted unanimously yesterday to urge the Kremlin to recognize the two regions as independent if Georgia succeeds in its goal to join NATO. Russia has already decided to send more peacekeepers to both breakaway states.

Why is Russia being provocative?
There are four main reasons Russia flaunting its influence and being confrontational:
• Possible NATO membership for Georgia and Ukraine
• Kosovar independence
• American approval of new shipments of arms to Kosovo
• The European missile shield

The first impetus for Russia’s actions is the same impetus for the measure passed by Russia’s parliament. The NATO head of state summit in Bucharest, Romania, is going to take place on April 2. There, several former Soviet states will apply for NATO membership. Three of them – Macedonia, Albania, and Croatia – will be ignored by Russia. Two of applications – Georgia and Ukraine’s – Russia seriously opposes. And on Wednesday, President Bush endorsed one of the country’s applications: Georgia’s.

The second force driving Russia to possibly recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia is Kosovar independence from Serbia and the international recognition that followed. Russia was one of a handful of countries that did not recognize the new Balkan country. Russia supported Serbia in its goal of holding onto Kosovo; they failed miserably. Russia was trying to assert itself in its former sphere of influence. Consequently, when it failed, the Kremlin looked very weak. Russia didn’t respond immediately, other than cutting off some energy from Eastern Europe. I warned at that time that we could expect Russia to either (a) cut off energy from Europe, (b) cause the U.S. problems at the United Nations Security Council or (b) recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia. It looks like options (a) and (c) could be realized.

Thirdly, President Bush yesterday announced the authorization of supplying Kosovo weapons. This was just another action that is brazenly against the Kremlin’s wishes.

Finally, the U.S. and Russia had conducted high level negotiations last week over the planned missile shield to be built by America in Poland and the Czech Republic, and, well, they were a total disappointment. There was nothing the Russian government was prepared to do to convince Washington to change their mind; there were no concessions Washington was willing to make to please Russia. The negotiations ended in a stalemate.

How Washington should proceed
There are two arguments that can be made here. One, that Georgia is a vital American and European ally and needs to be protected and included in NATO. Alternatively, one could argue, tensions with Russia are strained enough already and either concessions need to be made so Georgia can be included in NATO or Georgia shouldn’t be allowed to join NATO at all.

What would be best for humanity as a whole? The second option: Concessions from both sides. Russia agrees to tolerate Georgia’s NATO membership bid, and the United States consents to make compromises over the Europe missile shield program. Either the program would be given up completely or toned down.

Really, in this scenario, it would be the United States that wins. America and her interests are not protected nearly as much as one might believe because of the planned shield (although, it is important to note, Russia is not hampered in the slightest by this missile shield as well). Therefore, it is not vital for Washington to continue the shield. In return, Moscow would allow Georgia and Ukraine to join NATO.

In fact, it is unlikely the next president (of the United States) would continue the shield anyway. Meaning, America would lose next to nothing, keep Russia happy, and gain Georgia’s acceptance into NATO.

Will the Arming of Sunni Militias in Iraq Pressure Iran?

Daniel Graeber has an interesting article in UPI (h/t) on the long term consequences of arming Sunni militias in Iraq.

But as the Sons of Iraq increasingly shed blood for the country, they are growing increasingly disenfranchised with the political rewards. Iraqis, including the Awakening Councils, want peace and stability, but as in any form of participatory government, they also want power. In Diyala province recently, members of the Sons of Iraq abandoned their checkpoints in protest of the Iraqi central government’s choice for police chief, who happened to be Shiite. That’s just one minor example of the swelling tide of political discontent emerging from the Awakening Councils, as many simply see no purpose in continuing the fight as the Awakening came with few rewards. Adding to the complexity is the tenuous cease-fire by the fighters loyal to the Shiite cleric Moqtada Sadr, who many of the Sawha forces fear.

I had Graeber's way of thinking until last week. Then I had a realization: what if the danger of arming the Sunnis was intentional? Why would anyone in their right mind do that, you may (rightfully) ask. Well, who is the United State's number one rival in the Middle East right now? Shiite Iran. Emphasis on the whole Shiite part.

Armed Sunni militias would make Iran's goal of puppeteering Iraq much, much harder for obvious reasons.

Not only that, but Iran really, really, really does not want to see the Sunnis rise up again in Iraq. The Iraq-Iran war in the 1980s resulted in the deaths of up to a million of the youngest and brightest Iranian men. Now, I'm not suggesting that Iraq would enter another conflict with Iraq, but this is still scary stuff for Iran.

Was this the Bush Administration’s intention? I have no way to know. All I know is that this is one of the consequences that we are going to have to deal with in the coming years.

Of course, there are still the many dangerous consequences Graeber mentions. For example, he and I both noticed the frightening similarities between our arming of Sunni militias now and our arming of the Afghani mujahedin during the Cold War.

The Math of the Democratic Delegates

Cross posted with PoliticalGrind.com

So it’s come down to this: an all out fight between Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination. Let’s take a quick look at the current numbers:

Obama: 1402 pledged (non-super) delegates

Clinton: 1240 pledged (non-super) delegates

Keep in mind, 2025 delegates are needed to win. And how many non-super delegates are left to win? 566. That means it is mathematically impossible for either candidate to win without the support of the super delegates, unless Florida and Michigan get revotes. And even then, it’s pretty unlikely that either candidate would receive enough votes; races between Clinton and Obama have been close.

Ouch. That’s painful. So how many superdelegates are there? 795. That’s really not a lot. Every vote, quite literally, will count.

Civil Liberties, Habeas Corpus, and Abraham Lincoln

It's been a while since I posted this, and with the President's recent veto of the torture, bill I figured it needed a repost.
-----------------------------------------------------
A controversial Republican president during a time of war, utilizing controversial new powers. Many, even in his own political party, were outraged when he suspended the right of habeas corpus and imprisoned many without trial. Military tribunals were authorized to try suspects quickly; money was spent without congressional authorization. Who was this president? None other than the great Abraham Lincoln.

Abraham Lincoln:
• Suspended the writ of habeas corpus. [1]
• Spent money without congressional authorization. [1]
• Imprisoned 18,000 suspected Confederate sympathizers without trial. [1]
• Conducted at least 4,271 trials by military commission. [2]

George W. Bush:
• Defined captured enemies as "enemy combatants". [3]
• Denied "enemy combatants" habeas corpus. [3]
• Tried "enemy combatants" through military tribunals. [3]

No similarities there, right? Of course there could be more added to both presidents, but this list gets the idea across. So what can we learn from this?
• Abraham Lincoln was one of the most popular presidents of all time, if not the most popular.
• President Bush isn't popular.

Does this mean that history will look back at Bush as one of the greats? Maybe, maybe not. The half year will decide that. But looking at the last 6 or so years and comparing it to the President Lincoln's, one could say that it appears Bush will have a nice legacy. But take another look.

In Article I, Section 9, the Constitution states, "The privilege of the writ of habeas corpus shall not be suspended, unless when in cases of rebellion or invasion the public safety may require it."

During Lincoln's time, there was a rebellion going on. One could argue whether "public safety may require it." But if you want to argue about that, adventure into the comments section.

Nominating a New CENTCOM Chief

Background
It has just been announced that the commander of CENTCOM, the command that overseas the Middle East, Admiral Fallon, has resigned. This comes a week after a story was published in Esquire that portrayed Fallon as the only person stopping the President from going to war with Iran. In a press conference today, Robert Gates denied that those perceptions are true, but of course, you can't believe that for certain.

Choosing a new chief
Congress needs to quickly approve or deny any nomination President Bush puts forward based on a couple of their key beliefs: their position on Iraq policy, Iran policy and how diplomatic they would be. Congress must nominate a moderate who can, on occasion, stand up to the Bush Administration and their sometimes radical policy.

Obama Doesn't Need the Veep Spot

So, in case you’ve been living in cave for a couple of days, the Clintons have been strongly pushing a Hillary-Obama ticket. Barack has denied he is running for the veep slot, and rightfully so.

This is a clever move by Clinton: she demeans Obama and looks good for the superdelegates at the same time. And of course, if the deal is successful, she gets the presidency. It’s actually pretty ingenious

Obama shouldn’t do it
There are no good incentives for Obama taking the deal. He has more superdelegates, more momentum, and is the favorite (for now). And even if he accepted the deal, he would be slighted by Bill Clinton; Obama would be the junior vice president.

A better deal
A better deal might be this: Obama for president, Bill Richardson (or anyone experienced) for veep, and Clinton for Secretary of State. One of the biggest positives in this deal is that it eliminates Bill Clinton. Everyone wins!

Gallup 6 Year Poll: 93% of Muslims are Moderates

Gallup poll: 93% of Muslims are moderates

The study was conducted from 2001 to 2007, and was very extensive.

About 93 percent of the world's 1.3 billion Muslims are moderates and only seven percent are politically radical, according to the poll, based on more than 50,000 interviews. In majority Muslim countries, overwhelming majorities said religion was a very important part of their lives -- 99 percent in Indonesia, 98 percent in Egypt, 95 percent in Pakistan.

But only seven percent of the billion Muslims surveyed -- the radicals -- condoned the attacks on the United States in 2001, the poll showed. Moderate Muslims interviewed for the poll condemned the 9/11 attacks on New York and Washington because innocent lives were lost and civilians killed. (AFP)

To be fair, 7% of 1.3 billion is 91 million. Of course, percentage wise, this number isn't as significant.

Any thoughts?