Wednesday, April 02, 2008

The Four Options for the Democratic Nomination and the Best Plan Going Forward

There are essentially four options left for the Democratic nomination. They depend upon three factors: who wins Pennsylvania, who wins Indiana, and whether Florida or Michigan get revotes.

The possibilities

1.Clinton wins Pennsylvania, Indiana and Florida and Michigan get revotes.
Outcome: Clinton wins
2. Clinton wins Pennsylvania, Indiana and Florida and Michigan do NOT get revotes.
Outcome: Clinton will win after a fight
3. Clinton wins Pennsylvania, Obama wins Indiana.
Outcome: Obama will win after a fight
4. Obama wins Pennsylvania, Indiana.
Outcome: The race is over. Obama wins nomination

The best plan moving forward
There is one plan, which DNC chairman Dean has already proposed, which makes perfect sense no matter which way any vote goes: superdelegates must endorse by June 4. This will save time, money, and energy, and could save Democrats the election. The one thing I would add is this: new elections in Florida and Michigan are not necessary. They understood the rules when they voted to move their primaries forward. A revote there would only be costly and would hurt the party.