Sunday, January 14, 2007

Iran War?

The American people, and I assume the Congress, expect the president to do what is necessary to protect our forces.

-Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, in response to if she believes the president has constitutional authority to pursue across the border into Iran or Syria

Glenn Greenwald recently published an article about the expansion of the Iraq war, and how it’s leading to a war with Iran. The Iranians detained recently, how Iran is supplying terrorists in Iraq, how the U.S. is going to stop the supplying (“We will interrupt the flow of support from Iran and Syria”), etc. are some of the reasons he gives to support that Bush is preparing for a war. All of that is true, but does not mean that there will be a war. Maybe Bush is just getting more confrontational. Also, his article states that the Iranians who were “kidnapped” were “kidnapped” out of the Iranian embassy. They weren’t. They were detained from a consulate, which is a lesser form of an embassy, but isn’t an embassy. All of this true, there will be no war. The key reason there won’t be a war yet is that the army is stretched too thin. Even with the proposed enlargement, it will be at least a couple of years before the expansion is complete. Unless Iran outright attacks the U.S. and claims responsibility, instead of just supplying weapons, there will be no war.


GDAEman said...

As you're probably aware, former UN weapons inspector, Scott Ritter, has written a new book... "Target Iran" I believe. In a recent interview he described Bush's mentality, roughly as follows:

Bush is acting like a big bully. When a bully looses a fight, like in Iraq, what does he do? He goes and looks for someone else to vent on. In this case, Iran.

Unfortunately, Iran is a Trap just Like Iraq, but Bigger and Stronger.

The US will attack from the air, 'cuz there aren't enough troops nor interest to go in on the ground.

Simmons said...

And as stated in your story, when going in by air, they will use the same tactics Israel used on Lebanon/Hezbollah, which failed, because the army is stretched to thin... Somebody at the Pentagon better have learned from the war this summer, because to defeat terrorists, you need more manpower on the ground. And, if Bush goes to war with Iran, he will have to go with congressional support or be impeached (he better be) and there's NO way he would get approval from them.
Also, on the Iran "trap". Iran is a country, not a terrorist group. It would be an easier war to fight.
Although the possibility of air power is convincing, even Bush isn't stupid enough to do something that will almost certainly get him impeached.