Monday, January 07, 2008

New Hampshire Primary Predictions

My New Hampshire predictions:

Barack Obama
Hillary Clinton
John Edwards

This state will be another success for Obama in a string of successes. After winning in an overwhelming majority white state (Iowa), he will take the lead here. From there, he will lose the Nevada caucus but go on to win the South Carolina primary, with the state’s large African-American population. That could potentially springboard him to Tsunami Tuesday. That is Clinton’s biggest worry.

Also expect Richardson to stay in the race; he’s waiting for Hispanic Nevada.

John McCain
Mitt Romney
Rudy Giuliani
Mike Huckabee
Ron Paul

The maverick is back and Romney is down. Romney lost a decent amount of his aura in Iowa, and the few Evangelical Christians in the state will be supporting Huckabee, who in turn will not receive much of the NH vote.

This is Ron Paul’s chance to shine. His nonconformist, libertarian stance in a nonconformist, libertarian state will allow him to stand out of the crowd. Could he beat Huckabee or Giuliani? Possibly.