Monday, September 24, 2007

Hillary's Nomination: Increasingly Likely

Reuters: Bush thinks Clinton will win Democratic nomination
Political Grind: This is Hillary’s Time
Political Realm: Wesley Clark Endorses Clinton

Hillary Clinton is increasingly edging towards the Democratic nomination. She’s ahead of Barack Obama by over 20 points, most polls indicate.

So what? Polls aren’t very accurate, after all, right? Right. And that’s why Clinton’s nomination is even more likely.

The voter factor

Polls aren’t very accurate for many reasons, but one is more important than others: the likelihood a voter will vote. In fact, only 54% of eligible voters actually vote. A candidate may have a 20 percentage point lead, but when the election actually comes, the win could narrow to only 7 or 8% of the vote. Why? People choose not to vote. Out of the top 3 Democratic candidates, whose supporters are most likely to cast ballots come Election Day? Here are three brief summaries:

Hillary Clinton
‘The machine’. Clinton’s ‘political machine’ comes with years of experience and political know-how. She has very staunch support from her husband’s fundraisers and supporters. Out of the three top tier candidates, Mrs. Clinton probably has the most compassionate supporters.

Barack Obama
Barack Obama, the symbol of change. Obama has a lot of supporter among younger voters, with less political experience. Statistics show that younger votes are even less likely to vote than the rest of the American population. Obama’s voter support ranks at #2.

John Edwards
John Edwards has made his campaign about poverty. Will poorer, lower-class groups support him? You bet. But just like younger voters, those below the poverty level are less likely to come out and vote. John Edwards comes in at #3, just like in the polls.