Thursday, September 13, 2007

Hezbollah - Not North Korea

Israel strike on Syria? Yup.
North Korea supplying Syria with nuclear technology? Nope.

Fox news, along with right-wing extremists (notably John Bolton) are publishing stories and op-eds claiming they have (unidentified) ‘sources’ who tell them North Korea may be supplying Syria with nuclear technology. We find that very unlikely.

First, North Korea is just beginning to disclose its nuclear facilities to the U.S. and the U.N, for very large sums of money, oil, and other basic necessities. If North Korea is selling nuclear technology to Syria, Syria would be paying very well. North Korea would not need anything from the U.S. After the North Korean nuclear deal earlier this year, most analysts suspected (for good reason) that North Korea badly needed the aid they were receiving in the deal. North Korea wouldn’t be needing that if they were exporting nuclear know-how.

Second, New deals with the DPRK are being announced every other week it feels like. Kim Jong-Il is giving the impression that he actually wants to shutdown his nuclear program. North Korea has decided to allow American, Russian, and United Nations inspectors to visit the Yongbyon plant.

Third, there are better explanations. It is more likely that Israel was either testing Syria’s defense capabilities, or destroying Syrian arms headed towards Hezbollah. Our bet is on the second.

No matter what the reason was – nukes, defense testing, or to destroy arms – Stat and I are back Israel’s maneuvers. A nuclear Syria would be nearly as disastrous as a nuclear Iran. While we would be back the operation less if it was only a test of Syrian defenses, Syria is still a very dangerous, terrorist-supplying dictatorship. And if our guess is correct, and the strike was to destroy weapons headed towards Hezbollah or terrorists in Iraq, we here are happy that the Israelis took the matter in to their own hands.